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Get Ready for a Bust in the Lithium Boom Amid Race to Supply Tesla’s Batteries: ‘Peak in Prices Coming Soon’

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Even the mining industry’s super commodity of the future may be unable to avoid the Achilles’ heel of all mineral producers — a recurring habit of busting a boom with too much supply.

As miners of everything from copper to iron ore wrestled with losses driven by global surpluses, prices soared for lithium, the light-weight metal used in rechargeable batteries. It’s easy to see why. Booming demand outpaced production thanks to the faster-than-expected growth in global electric-vehicle sales and the aggressive expansion plans of Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors Inc.

But a lot more lithium is on the way. The four largest producers — Rockwood Holdings Inc., Soc. Quimica & Minera de Chile SA, Albermarle Corp. and FMC Corp. — control as much as 90 per cent of the market. With prices surging, those companies may now look to increase output, while a host of newcomers are racing to get into the business of producing lithium, which can be extracted from mines or by evaporating brine in salt ponds.

“We expect to see the peak in prices coming pretty soon,” said Robert Baylis, a lithium market analyst and managing director at London-based Roskill Information Services, who predicts prices will peak in the second quarter of 2017. “Normally these things don’t tend to last too long. You get a supply reaction in lithium. There’s more material coming on the market.”

So far, the big four have been producing below capacity even as prices rose, partly because lithium is a small part of their businesses. For example, FMC generated just 7.3 per cent of its revenue last year from lithium, with the rest coming mostly from chemicals used in agriculture, health and nutrition. But with new players jumping in, the top suppliers will be forced to expand output to protect market share, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

Expanding Capacity

Philadelphia-based FMC announced last month it would expand its lithium hydroxide capacity after signing a new supply agreement with a “major manufacturer” of electric cars. By 2020, the company expects earnings from lithium will double from this year.

Demand for lithium remains strong. Tesla, a maker of electric vehicles that will start selling its Model 3 sedan late next year, is close to completing a giant battery plant in Nevada dubbed the “gigafactory.” Musk has sped up construction on the US$5 billion facility to meet his goal of making 500,000 cars by 2018. That means the plant, a venture with Panasonic Corp. that will boast the largest footprint of any building in the world, will need to be making batteries for cars by the end of this year.

“Eventually, we will all be driving electric cars,” said Jeremy Wrathall, head of global natural resources in London at Investec. “We are definitely seeing a sea change.”

While lithium makes up only 2 per cent of the material used in the Tesla batteries, and was once described by Musk as “just the salt on the salad,” the auto market represents a major shift in demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates a Tesla Model S battery requires 63 kilograms (139 pounds), compared with as little as 5 grams (0.2 ounces) for a mobile phone.

Prospects for increased demand are luring additional supplies outside the control of the big four, with higher prices making some projects more viable. Four new mines will start production next year, and as many as 15 more are on the horizon, according to Liberum Capital Ltd.

Demand for lithium in batteries is expected to double by 2020 from this year, according to Macquarie. As consumption grows, the market will need an additional 100,000 tons of annual capacity by 2020, according to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence Ltd., an industry consultant that specializes in the lithium-ion battery supply chain. Just over half the additional output will come from existing producers, requiring new entrants, said Simon Moores, Benchmark’s managing director.

While prices and demand have jumped, “supply has also responded more quickly than we thought it would, from Chile and Australia in particular,” Macquarie analysts wrote in an Aug. 8 note. “The latter should be a concern to market bulls because we previously assumed a market share battle would only ensue late next year.”

The market could be “significantly oversupplied” from next year, Macquarie said. One of the most significant additions has came from Orocobre Ltd., an Australia-based mining company that has begun producing from its Olaroz project in Argentina. Orocobre added 0.5 per cent to A$4.24 in Sydney trading on Friday. For the year, it’s up 84 per cent.

Price Outlook

FinnCap Ltd., a London-based broker, estimates the price of lithium carbonate surged 30 per cent in the past year to about US$8,000 a ton, while some fetched as much as US$25,000 on the spot market. Deutsche Bank AG forecasts that lithium carbonate will peak at US$7,369 next year before trading in the US$6,000-$7,000 range through to 2023. Macquarie predicts a rally above US$8,000 next year and then a softening toward the end of the decade. Benchmark Minerals sees an average of US$14,000 this year before dropping to US$10,000 by 2020.

The expected moderation of prices reflects forecasts of supply increases that eventually will create a surplus, though analysts disagree on when.

While there was a lithium deficit last year, Macquarie expects a surplus this year that will last through 2021. Supply will grow 24 per cent in 2016 and 30 per cent next year, according to this month’s report, outpacing demand gains of 8 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. CRU Group, a commodity researcher, predicts the surplus will arrive in 2019.

Car batteries are driving demand now, but tighter supplies may emerge again if the market develops for renewable electricity systems in homes, like Tesla’s Powerwall.

“The question you have to ask is how quickly can supply respond?” CRU’s Rebecca Gordon said.

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Beauty Week is back at Hudson’s Bay in Toronto and it’s time to get glam

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Beauty enthusiasts rejoice! Beauty Week at Hudson’s Bay is back in Toronto for another year. It’s time to stock up on all of your fall essentials and, maybe discover some new ones. 

From Friday, August 18 to Sunday, August 27, you can expect a truly elevated beauty experience in-store with incredible special offers, limited-time gifts, and exciting activations. 

If you’re a diehard beauty lover, you’ll already know that Hudson’s Bay is the place to shop thanks to its extensive range of over 195 skin and makeup brands from both luxury labels and masstige brands — including Tata Harper, Estée Lauder, YSL, Nars Cosmetics, Bobbi Brown, and so much more.

Throughout The Bay’s Beauty Week, visitors can take in some at-counter activations and interactive expert-led tutorials, where there will be chances to get makeup touch-ups from top-tier brands, try a spritz of the most alluring fragrances, and sample tons of new products.

This year’s Beauty Week highlight is the ‘Best in Beauty’ tote, a meticulously-curated selection of 30 deluxe samples from an array of top-tier brands like Dr. Barbara Sturm and Shiseido spanning skincare, fragrance, and makeup — all in a super sleek bag.

The tote, which is valued at over $300, is retailing for just $39 and is a fantastic way to explore new products (without breaking the bank). However, there is a limited quantity, so if you want to get your hands on one, you’ll need to be fast.

Wondering exactly what Beauty Week’s free gifts with purchases entail? If you spend over $95 at Lancôme, you will receive a six-piece set valued at $130. Or, you can get an Estée Lauder gift valued at $170 with purchases over $80. (And that’s just to name a few.)

If you’re a Hudson’s Bay Rewards member, you’ll also get $20 in Hudson’s Bay rewards when you spend over $100 on beauty.

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The Canadian Armed Forces are hiring for several non-combat military jobs

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The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) have several non-combat jobs, some of which do not require a college degree or past work experience.

Life in the forces has several benefits, such as paid education plans (college, university and graduate-level programs), 20 paid vacation days, health and dental coverage for you and your family, maternity and paternal leave, and pension plans. You can learn more about the benefits in detail here.

And to make it easier to gauge if you qualify, the listings also include related civilian jobs to see if it’s your ideal role.

Financial services administrator

Related civilian jobs: Financial records entry clerk, financial manager, accounting technician, bookkeeper, budget officer, cashier clerk, business planner technician, and verification manager.

Description: You’ll help budget resources for all military activities besides providing financial assistance.

Education: You need to have completed Grade 10.

Duties: As a financial services administrator, you’ll be responsible for bookkeeping and managing budgets. You’ll also provide support in accounts payable and accounts receivable.

Work environment: Those in this role work at CAF bases, on ships or overseas. You might also be expected to help special operation units, recruiting offices, schools, and medical organizations.

Postal clerk

Related civilian jobs: Mail clerk, mail sorter.

Description: You’ll provide postal services to members and their families at bases and establishments.

Education: Grade 10. No previous work experience or related career skills are required.

Duties: As the postal clerk, you’ll handle mail duties.

Work environment: Besides a postal office, you may work on a ship or a mobile postal van. You might be expected to serve with Royal Canadian Navy, the Army, and the Royal Canadian Air Force in Canada and abroad.

Dental technician

Related civilian jobs: Dental assistant, dental hygienist.

Description: You’ll be helping dental officers provide dental services to CAF members, their families, and dependents.

Education: Level II dental assisting diploma from an accredited college or a National Dental Assisting Examining Board (NDAEB) certificate.

Duties: Those in this role will be responsible for various responsibilities, including disinfection and sterilization of dental equipment, applying rubber dams, placing cavity liners, and controlling bleeding. In addition, you’ll assist in laboratory procedures like creating casts, custom trays, and mouthguards.

Work environment: This role will require you to work in a military dental clinic, a Mobile Dental Clinic, an Air Transportable Dental System, or onboard a ship. You might be expected to work on a base in Canada or other operations in other parts of the world.

Human resources administrator

Related civilian jobs: Records administrator, data entry supervisor, receptionist, office manager, executive assistant, payroll clerk, and information management technician.

Description: Provide administrative and general human resources support.

Education: Grade 10. No previous work experience or related career skills are required.

Duties: In addition to human resources administration and services, you’ll be handling pay and allowances, managing automated pay systems, and maintaining personnel records.

Work environment: HR administrators work at all CAF bases in Canada. They also work on ships and overseas to support the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Navy, or Royal Canadian Air Force operations.

Medical assistant

Related civilian jobs: Emergency medical responder, ambulance and first aid attendant, registered nursing assistant, licensed practical nurse, and hospital orderly.

Description: Successful candidates will help treat the sick and injured in CAF units. You’ll be assisting and supporting nursing and medical officers.

Education: Minimum of Grade 11 biology, Grade 10 physics or chemistry, and Grade 10 math.

Duties: You’ll provide initial care and essential life support treatments in trauma cases. You’ll help with health assessments (hearing and vision tests, perform basic lab procedures, etc.) and initiate and manage medical records and reports. You’ll also be expected to provide support and first aid during training exercises.

Work environment: Medical assistants may serve with the Royal Canadian Navy, the Royal Canadian Air Force or the Canadian Army as part of the Canadian Forces Health Services Group. Those in this role are exposed to the same risks as the forces they support.

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Porter’s new loyalty program promises to match Air Canada’s Aeroplan status

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Porter Airlines is once again stirring the pot among Canadian airline rivals, now going after Air Canada’s Aeroplan members by offering to match their loyalty status to an equivalent of their own.

The beloved airline, which recently ranked as having the best cabin service in North America, challenged the competition for the second time this year, after previously deploying a similar tactic against WestJet in the spring. 

Earlier in April, Porter presented customers with a limited-time offer to match the loyalty status of WestJet’s patrons with VIPorter levels.

Now, they’re offering Aeroplan members to seamlessly transition to an equivalent VIPorter Avid Traveller status based on their existing membership tier.

Members can then take advantage of an array of travel perks that come with flying Porter, including seat selection, baggage, and flight changes.

For those currently holding an Aeroplan membership, there are two ways to acquire the Avid Traveller status for the rest of 2023:

Status-Based Match:
  • Aeroplan 25K members = VIPorter Venture
  • Aeroplan 35K members = VIPorter Ascent
  • Aeroplan 50K, 75K, and Super Elite = VIPorter First
Flight Segments-Based Match:
  • 5 flight segments = VIPorter Passport
  • 8 segments = VIPorter Venture
  • 17 segments = VIPorter Ascent
  • 28 or more segments = VIPorter First

Members will have to first submit their applications on Porter’s website. Registration will remain open until September 6, 2023.

In order to maintain their membership level through 2024, customers will have until the end of 2023 to reach the following reduced qualifying spend (QS) targets:

  • Passport = $500 in QS
  • Venture = $750 in QS
  • Ascent = $1500 in QS
  • First = $2500 in QS

Over the past year, Porter has launched an aggressive expansion strategy, including everything from introducing longer flights on newly-purchased jet planes flying out of Toronto Pearson, free WiFi, and a new all-inclusive economy experience.

With Canadians losing both Swoop and Sunwing as WestJet incorporates both into their mainline business, Porter’s direct competition is welcome to keep prices competitive.

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