Business
Once the shock of Brexit begins to settle, what’s next for the global economy?
When the shock from Britain’s rejection of the European Union begins to subside, the reality of the vote could come tumbling down with a thud. What will be lost, what will be gained and — perhaps, as critical — what won’t we see coming next?
For now, the ball is in London’s court — where there appears to be little love lost between political leaders, especially those in the breakaway camp, most pointedly the Independent Party, but also within the ruling Conservatives led by Prime Minister David Cameron, who is now stepping down and will be replaced as leader this fall.
First, however, there is the inconvenient economic truth of the vote to break from the EU. Sixteen million U.K. citizens — or 48 per cent of those who were eligible — filled out ballots and gave the “Leave” camp 51.9 per cent victory over the “Remain” side’s 48.1 per cent.
Here comes the recession, again
It won’t happen right away, but most economists predict the U.K. vote to leave the EU will pull the country’s economy into a short-term downward spiral, lasting likely less than a year. “The economic effects of Brexit can be broken into ongoing, short-term and long-term consequences,” says Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. “The short-term effect is that the U.K. is now at serious risk of a temporary recession,” he says. “The ongoing effect is that high policy uncertainty surrounding Brexit has already interfered with U.K. business investment over the last few quarters, undermining the rate of economic growth.”
What about U.K. monetary policy?
Under Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who argued that Brexit would hurt the economy, Thursday’s vote might convince the bank to “cut rates as early as this Sunday and expansion of its quantitative easing program is a possibility,” CIBC Economics said in a note to investors. “Earlier plans to tighten fiscal policy are obviously off the table.” It’s the same stand-pat scenario for the U.S. Fed and the Bank of Canada.
What happened in the markets?
Stock markets plunged Friday, with Germany’s DAX falling almost seven per cent, the Dow Jones industrial average 3.4 per cent and Britain’s FTSE 3.2 per cent. The pound hit a 31-year low.
Outside the U.K., however, that turmoil may not last. Analysts at Oxford Economics told The Associated Press that the global market reaction and fears of an EU breakup are exaggerated. Friday’s drops “are hard to square with the likely long-term impact on the U.K. — at worst a few per cent of GDP in the long run in an economy that is only 3.5 per cent of world output.”
U.K. out of EU in two years
Under the European Union’s treaty Article 50, never before used, the U.K. will have a couple years to extricate itself from the 28-member bloc. During that time, British and European leaders will need to agree to terms of disengagement. What the final pact will dictate is not known at this point. But whatever is negotiated will likely end up being the template for other possible breaks from the EU.
So much for cross-border mobility
Forget about silly trade guidelines — like the “bendy banana law” that set standards for their shape and shipment within the EU — the real sore point in the free-trading bloc was immigration into the U.K. that heightened concerns over the level of “foreign” workers from other EU countries flooding the local labour market.
Who could be next to go?
Scotland and Northern Ireland have already made their thoughts known: They are looking to get out, and interested in hearing — and negotiating — the possible terms and conditions of an exit. Greece, still swimming in the debt accumulated since the 2007-08 financial crisis that nearly sank the country, is the most likely EU tenant to be forced out, rather than bailed out as in the past. Could Portugal and Spain be next in the exit line?
Monetary support for ‘resilient’ U.K. banks
Global monetary officials, including the Bank of Canada — headed by governor Stephen Poloz — moved quickly to assure investors that the U.K. economy and its financial sector “remain resilient” despite the vote to leave the EU. G7 central banks have already “taken steps to ensure adequate liquidity and to support the functioning of markets,” Canada’s central bank said. “We affirm our assessment that the U.K. economy and financial sector remain resilient and are confident that the U.K. authorities are well-positioned to address the consequences of the referendum outcome,” the bank said. Finance Minister Bill Morneau is also monitoring the impact of the EU vote, along with his G7 counterparts.
Canadian PM reacts to Brexit
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said “we respect the choice of the British people and we will remain a solid partner with the U.K. and the European Union.” Trudeau said “our shared shared values make us natural trade partners. Therefore, we will continue to work with the United Kingdom and the European Union as we move forward with the new decision. … We are monitoring the situation and will work with our partners around the world to maintain the stability of the economy and create growth.”
Fate of Canada-European trade agreement?
International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland says the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement is still in play. “We remain committed to growing global trade that is good for Canada’s economy, good for the environment, good for labour and good for people.” RBC Economics, meanwhile, noted the U.K. has been a “champion of CETA, so the country’s exit from the EU removes an important supporter of the agreement at this crucial juncture. It is possible that remaining EU countries will seek changes to some of some of the terms of the agreement that the U.K. argued for during negotiations. But re-opening the agreement and returning to the negotiating table would result in significant delays to implementation.”
What about U.K.’s financial hub?
Until now, the City of London ranked as one of the top financial centres in the world, rivalled in Europe only by Frankfurt. With an exit from the EU, London is expected to lose ground to its regional trading hub competitors — including Dublin, Ireland’s growing popularity as a financial centre. Along with a diminished trading role, the U.K. currency could also lose favour against the U.S. dollar. With Brexit closer to being a reality, the flow of investment outside of the U.K. will likely continue to weaken the pound. Over the past eight weeks, about $4.31 billion has gone out of U.K. equities, investment bank Jefferies says.
The U.K.’s ‘spirit of the age’
With this week’s historic vote to leave the EU, “Britons have proved once again that they are amongst the world’s best at channelling the spirit of the age,” says Brian Lee Crowley, managing director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. “In politics, economics, fashion, music, art and many other fields, Britain has often led the world in new and unexpected directions,” Crowley says. “Brexit is another such epochal turning whose full significance will only unfold over the next few years.”
Financial Post, with files from The Associated Press
Beauty enthusiasts rejoice! Beauty Week at Hudson’s Bay is back in Toronto for another year. It’s time to stock up on all of your fall essentials and, maybe discover some new ones.
From Friday, August 18 to Sunday, August 27, you can expect a truly elevated beauty experience in-store with incredible special offers, limited-time gifts, and exciting activations.
If you’re a diehard beauty lover, you’ll already know that Hudson’s Bay is the place to shop thanks to its extensive range of over 195 skin and makeup brands from both luxury labels and masstige brands — including Tata Harper, Estée Lauder, YSL, Nars Cosmetics, Bobbi Brown, and so much more.
Throughout The Bay’s Beauty Week, visitors can take in some at-counter activations and interactive expert-led tutorials, where there will be chances to get makeup touch-ups from top-tier brands, try a spritz of the most alluring fragrances, and sample tons of new products.
This year’s Beauty Week highlight is the ‘Best in Beauty’ tote, a meticulously-curated selection of 30 deluxe samples from an array of top-tier brands like Dr. Barbara Sturm and Shiseido spanning skincare, fragrance, and makeup — all in a super sleek bag.
The tote, which is valued at over $300, is retailing for just $39 and is a fantastic way to explore new products (without breaking the bank). However, there is a limited quantity, so if you want to get your hands on one, you’ll need to be fast.
Wondering exactly what Beauty Week’s free gifts with purchases entail? If you spend over $95 at Lancôme, you will receive a six-piece set valued at $130. Or, you can get an Estée Lauder gift valued at $170 with purchases over $80. (And that’s just to name a few.)
If you’re a Hudson’s Bay Rewards member, you’ll also get $20 in Hudson’s Bay rewards when you spend over $100 on beauty.
The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) have several non-combat jobs, some of which do not require a college degree or past work experience.
Life in the forces has several benefits, such as paid education plans (college, university and graduate-level programs), 20 paid vacation days, health and dental coverage for you and your family, maternity and paternal leave, and pension plans. You can learn more about the benefits in detail here.
And to make it easier to gauge if you qualify, the listings also include related civilian jobs to see if it’s your ideal role.
Financial services administrator
Related civilian jobs: Financial records entry clerk, financial manager, accounting technician, bookkeeper, budget officer, cashier clerk, business planner technician, and verification manager.
Description: You’ll help budget resources for all military activities besides providing financial assistance.
Education: You need to have completed Grade 10.
Duties: As a financial services administrator, you’ll be responsible for bookkeeping and managing budgets. You’ll also provide support in accounts payable and accounts receivable.
Work environment: Those in this role work at CAF bases, on ships or overseas. You might also be expected to help special operation units, recruiting offices, schools, and medical organizations.
Postal clerk
Related civilian jobs: Mail clerk, mail sorter.
Description: You’ll provide postal services to members and their families at bases and establishments.
Education: Grade 10. No previous work experience or related career skills are required.
Duties: As the postal clerk, you’ll handle mail duties.
Work environment: Besides a postal office, you may work on a ship or a mobile postal van. You might be expected to serve with Royal Canadian Navy, the Army, and the Royal Canadian Air Force in Canada and abroad.
Dental technician
Related civilian jobs: Dental assistant, dental hygienist.
Description: You’ll be helping dental officers provide dental services to CAF members, their families, and dependents.
Education: Level II dental assisting diploma from an accredited college or a National Dental Assisting Examining Board (NDAEB) certificate.
Duties: Those in this role will be responsible for various responsibilities, including disinfection and sterilization of dental equipment, applying rubber dams, placing cavity liners, and controlling bleeding. In addition, you’ll assist in laboratory procedures like creating casts, custom trays, and mouthguards.
Work environment: This role will require you to work in a military dental clinic, a Mobile Dental Clinic, an Air Transportable Dental System, or onboard a ship. You might be expected to work on a base in Canada or other operations in other parts of the world.
Human resources administrator
Related civilian jobs: Records administrator, data entry supervisor, receptionist, office manager, executive assistant, payroll clerk, and information management technician.
Description: Provide administrative and general human resources support.
Education: Grade 10. No previous work experience or related career skills are required.
Duties: In addition to human resources administration and services, you’ll be handling pay and allowances, managing automated pay systems, and maintaining personnel records.
Work environment: HR administrators work at all CAF bases in Canada. They also work on ships and overseas to support the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Navy, or Royal Canadian Air Force operations.
Medical assistant
Related civilian jobs: Emergency medical responder, ambulance and first aid attendant, registered nursing assistant, licensed practical nurse, and hospital orderly.
Description: Successful candidates will help treat the sick and injured in CAF units. You’ll be assisting and supporting nursing and medical officers.
Education: Minimum of Grade 11 biology, Grade 10 physics or chemistry, and Grade 10 math.
Duties: You’ll provide initial care and essential life support treatments in trauma cases. You’ll help with health assessments (hearing and vision tests, perform basic lab procedures, etc.) and initiate and manage medical records and reports. You’ll also be expected to provide support and first aid during training exercises.
Work environment: Medical assistants may serve with the Royal Canadian Navy, the Royal Canadian Air Force or the Canadian Army as part of the Canadian Forces Health Services Group. Those in this role are exposed to the same risks as the forces they support.
Porter Airlines is once again stirring the pot among Canadian airline rivals, now going after Air Canada’s Aeroplan members by offering to match their loyalty status to an equivalent of their own.
The beloved airline, which recently ranked as having the best cabin service in North America, challenged the competition for the second time this year, after previously deploying a similar tactic against WestJet in the spring.
Earlier in April, Porter presented customers with a limited-time offer to match the loyalty status of WestJet’s patrons with VIPorter levels.
Now, they’re offering Aeroplan members to seamlessly transition to an equivalent VIPorter Avid Traveller status based on their existing membership tier.
Members can then take advantage of an array of travel perks that come with flying Porter, including seat selection, baggage, and flight changes.
For those currently holding an Aeroplan membership, there are two ways to acquire the Avid Traveller status for the rest of 2023:
Status-Based Match:
- Aeroplan 25K members = VIPorter Venture
- Aeroplan 35K members = VIPorter Ascent
- Aeroplan 50K, 75K, and Super Elite = VIPorter First
Flight Segments-Based Match:
- 5 flight segments = VIPorter Passport
- 8 segments = VIPorter Venture
- 17 segments = VIPorter Ascent
- 28 or more segments = VIPorter First
Members will have to first submit their applications on Porter’s website. Registration will remain open until September 6, 2023.
In order to maintain their membership level through 2024, customers will have until the end of 2023 to reach the following reduced qualifying spend (QS) targets:
- Passport = $500 in QS
- Venture = $750 in QS
- Ascent = $1500 in QS
- First = $2500 in QS
Over the past year, Porter has launched an aggressive expansion strategy, including everything from introducing longer flights on newly-purchased jet planes flying out of Toronto Pearson, free WiFi, and a new all-inclusive economy experience.
With Canadians losing both Swoop and Sunwing as WestJet incorporates both into their mainline business, Porter’s direct competition is welcome to keep prices competitive.
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